The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy In Ukraine
The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine
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"Today, a decision was made on the need to change the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "But war does not remain the same. War changes and demands change. Battles 2022, 2023 and 2024 are three different realities. 2024 will bring new changes, for which we must be ready. New approaches, new strategies are needed. "Crucial for achieving Ukraine's goals in the war. Russia cannot simply accept the existence of an independent Ukraine - the very fact of our country's independent life." "Starting today, a new management team will take over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said on Thursday.
The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last. While no one can provide definitive answers, academic research on war gives us some insights into how the conflict in Ukraine might unfold. Russia's invasion plan has not gone entirely to plan - Britain's Defence Intelligence says hundreds of Russian troops have been killed and resistance is stiff - but it is progressing. Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow.
Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024
If there has not been any progress then at least he should take stock. The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken. The effectiveness of the drone and missile attacks on Ukraine can be judged. He will have been able to see whether or not the EU and the US have sorted out their funding packages.
As of this writing, the superforecasters had assigned a roughly 70 percent probability to the scenario of Russia and Ukraine not agreeing to end the conflict before October 1, 2024, the furthest-out date among the multiple-choice options presented. When the superforecasters were asked to name the year in which they expected Russia’s war against Ukraine to end, the median answer was 2025, with a minimum of 2024 and a maximum of 2037. There are no certain answers to my questions, just ones contingent on unknowable future circumstances. To put a twist on an old Yiddish expression, people predict, and war laughs.
Can Ukraine resist?
Faced by the criticism that Washington’s "China first" policy means the US has moved too slowly, Borrell said it was a reasonable criticism. "When one decides to help a militarily invaded country … hesitating can be a very costly response," Borrell said at a seminar at Quo Vadis Europa in Santander. Nevertheless, the Kyiv Institute reckon Russia has lost $100bn in oil export revenues since February 2022 and $40bn in gas revenues. It also looks as if Moscow is becoming more adept at avoiding the G7’s $60 a barrel crude oil price cap by reducing the use of western insurers to transport the oil.
Defense British news (https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/what-news-does-balthasar-bring-to-romeo-discover-the-latest-update) spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said. That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.
Ditto the devastation it continues to create in some of the world’s poorest countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen. Along with devastating droughts and local conflicts, it has led to staggering increases in the price of basic foods (with both Ukrainian and Russian grains, to one degree or another, blocked from the market). More than 27 million people are already facing acute food shortages or outright starvation in those four nations alone, thanks at least in part to the conflict in Ukraine.
Equally, Ukraine’s dependence on their weapons gives Western powers a say in how Kyiv plots its strategy. In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West. Still, Western arms — even though supplied in an incremental, cautious manner — in Ukraine have similarly been key to halting Russian advances.
According to IAEA’s latest update on the situation in Ukraine, a new announcement from the occupied plant stated that no employees of Ukraine’s national operator Energoatom would be allowed to continue working at the site.Mr Zelensky said he expected a detailed plan for the armed forces this year, taking into account the reality of the war with Russia.Borrowing from the late Czech writer Milan Kundera, he vowed the west would not be "kidnapped a second time" as it had been by the previous Soviet occupation of central and eastern European.The Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, a senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S."I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.
Putin can’t keep his forces on the offensive all year long and now has to keep an eye out for new Ukrainian strikes on assets not only in Crimea (such as the recent hit on a large landing ship in the Black Sea port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea) but also in Russia proper. Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. A lot was riding on Ukraine’s offensive, including the added value that might result from western equipment transfers and training programmes. In his October assessment, Snyder floated one scenario in which Ukrainian military victories prompt a power struggle in Moscow that leads Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, as Putin and his rivals judge that the armed forces loyal to them are most useful on the homefront.
One problem is it leads to playing down the benefits the US has always got in its conventional operations from superior firepower. As we learnt more it also became apparent that the demands of close coordination of complex operations in tough conditions were beyond fresh units that had not quite enough training. They had lots of new equipment but it came in many different types. Furthermore the battles in the Donbas against the Russians, including for Bakhmut (which was eventually taken in June) had come at a high cost, with many experienced soldiers lost in the fight. The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense. There were in fact already obvious tensions in the Russian high command.
More likely, Snyder argues, Putin is trying to instill fear in order to buy his military time and undermine international support for Ukraine. The Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, a senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, also pointed to the Kremlin’s imperial aspirations as a key indicator to watch, but added that these could be thwarted by developments off the battlefield. With the war in Ukraine about to enter its third year, the damage wrought by the conflict to the country and to global peace and security is becoming increasingly clear, the UN’s top political affairs official said on Tuesday.
The Ukrainian military used the Bohdana in 2022 to help drive Russian troops off Snake Island, a strategic point in the Black Sea. Among Ukraine's locally developed weapons systems is the 2S22 Bohdana, a 155-millimeter NATO-standard self-propelled howitzer mounted on a six-wheel military truck. Its rocket-assisted projectiles can hit targets up to 30 miles away. Since 2015, Ukrainian Armor has developed and produced two types of armored vehicles. Two years later, it also began manufacturing mortars of all calibers as well as ammunition for those mortars.
In a statement, the agency said the terminals were being used by units like Russia’s 83rd Air Assault Brigade, which is fighting near the embattled towns of Klishchiivka and Andriivka in the partially-occupied eastern region of Donetsk.But less familiar was his overture to the east, to countries that have been victims, rather than the instigators, of imperialism.But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.
Vladimir Putin depends on oligarchs, the Russian mafia and the military for his survival. Although Putin attempted to build up a financial bulwark that would allow him to protect the interests of the oligarchs, the sanctions imposed by the west have undercut most of his efforts. The invasion plan broadly consists of a three-pronged line of attack, from the north, east and south, using artillery and missile strikes to soften resistance before following up with infantry and tanks.
Still, Biden faces political peril if the war goes badly for the Ukrainians. Even if Republicans on the Hill are mainly responsible for holding up military aid, that won’t help Biden much politically if Putin starts to regain the battlefield advantage next year, after the nearly $100 billion Biden’s already put into stopping Russia. For most of the conflict GOP critics have accused Biden of moving too slowly to arm the Ukrainians with the most sophisticated weaponry, such as M1A1 Abrams battle tanks, long-range precision artillery and F-16 fighter jets.
Air defense also needs ammunition to strike down the missiles and drones Russia shoots at Ukrainian cities nearly every day."This is a tripwire that would trigger the might of all Nato, including the US, UK and France."Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations.In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister,
said the Russians had an "activity plan until 2025," and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a "week to live" if arms supplies from Western countries were to end.The very fact that the EU’s financing of military equipment for Ukraine comes from a fund termed the European Peace Facility, set up only in 2021 and outside the formal EU treaties, underscores how quickly Brussels has not just had to improvise, but re-found its very purpose.
In the past, the former Fox News host has launched scathing attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and allied himself with Mr Putin's drive to embrace so-called "traditional values," a phrase which has included attacks on LGBT people in Russia. Mr Putin said he believed a deal could be struck to release Mr Gershkovich, 32, "if our partners take reciprocal steps". But the interview is a major coup for Carlson, who has rebounded rapidly since he was spectacularly fired by Fox News last year, after reportedly falling out of favour with owner Rupert Murdoch. It allows him to present his new media company, which launched on X last year, as a major player in the media landscape. Prior to the interview, he falsely claimed that other journalists were uninterested in talking to the Russian leader and that "not a single Western journalist has bothered to interview" Mr Putin since the invasion of Ukraine. The interview, which was recorded on Tuesday, was posted on Carlson's website and X, formerly known as Twitter.
As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing.And that has direct consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine.Russia’s invasion led to defence spending by EU states in 2022 for the first time surpassing that of 1989 – 30% higher than in 2013.Subsequently, however, Russian forces have made significant gains in the south and southeast, occupying part of the Black Sea coast, Kherson province (which lies north of Crimea), most of Donbas in the east, and Zaporozhizhia province in the southeast.
All this as mid-term elections loom and President Biden’s approval ratings, now at 39.7 percent, continue to sink. Still, the botched northern campaign and the serial failures of a military that had been infused with vast sums of money and supposedly subjected to widespread modernization and reform was stunning. In the United States, the intrepid Ukrainian resistance and its battlefield successes soon produced a distinctly upbeat narrative of that country as the righteous David defending the rules and norms of the international order against Putin’s Russian Goliath. When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, I was easing my way into a new job and in the throes of the teaching year. I spend most of my day poring over multiple newspapers, magazines, blogs, and the Twitter feeds of various military mavens, a few of whom have been catapulted by the war from obscurity to a modicum of fame.
It has a homegrown war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes there is a good chance Russia can sustain the conflict for years to come. "Serbia’s war against Kosovo was ended because outside powers got involved," she told Al Jazeera, referring to NATO’s bombardment of Serbia in 1999. "The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]". Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures. Of course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable.